France: Perhaps the Real Canary in the Coal Mine?

I'm living in France at the moment, so what happens here is particularly interesting to me.  The ambiance is a mix of anxiety about the future and cautious hope that things can't be as bad as they seem.

John Mauldin, whose weekly e-mail newsletter is one of my must-reads, puts his finger on the European situation in this week's Thoughts From the Front Line.

A healthy Europe is vital to the future of the U.S., in the sense that our current state of dreamy optimism is fragile.  Our self-confidence is dependent upon things progressing smoothly in other parts of the world, and the slightest hiccup, whether at home or "over there," can have a ripple effect.

John has another column from last year that explains this fragility nicely.  It has to do with complexity theory.  Read here.