Thursday, April 04, 2024

US Gold Reserves - Short 20th Century history

What trajectory did the US gold reserves follow in the last century?

Below is a World Gold Council chart that might be accurate, although there is some debate today about exactly how much of the US gold reserves are accurately accounted for. Some say a portion of it is no longer there, some say that a percentage has been used in financial transactions that would involve claims to some of it. But the chart is probably not far off.

You can see that gold began leaving the country starting in the mid-1950s. By the end of that decade a few wise financial advisors were recommending investing extra savings – i.e. savings one could afford to risk – in numismatic gold and gold stocks. (It was illegal to hold gold outright.)

The reason was that the gold standard kept the official dollar price at $35, but there was so much dollar inflating going on that foreign countries were smart enough to get gold instead of holding onto dollars (which dollars had been received in payment for imports), and this was causing the unofficial market gold price in dollars to rise.

That’s why in 1971 Nixon probably looked at a similar chart and finally said stop, no more, we’re “closing the gold window.” And that’s when the dollar price took off, as wise advisors had predicted it would. More accurately, that’s when the exchange rate for dollars plummeted and price inflation in the US began to explode. (Yes, price inflation can be late to the party, but it always follows a period of monetary inflating.)

(The yellow line represents the dollar price of gold.)


Note that this chart stops in 2005. Here below is the chart from Kitco for the last three days. The dollar price is up to $2,290 as of this writing, even touching $2,304 for the first time in history. Not a bad investment, right? (But I’m not an investment advisor.)


Gold always seems to reflect the reality of the value of money, even if it no longer is officially an element of any country’s monetary standard. Who said the gold standard is dead?

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