France's Hope - France's Fear

Sarkozy has won this presidential election. As we all feared, a little less than half of the country is undergoing a mix of feelings ranging from disappointment to outright hatred.

So far, 730 cars have been burned and 592 people have been arrested in what everyone was expecting: An outburst of rage from the urban underprivileged who identify Sarkozy's announced anti-illegal immigration policy with Hitler's "ethnic cleansing."

Keep in mind that France has to put up with hundreds of burned vehicles even on a good day like New Year's Eve, so it is no surprise that this time the reaction has been a little more violent than usual. (Source: La Liberation.)


[Thanks to lelombrik.net for the photo, not from the scene.]

This is the kind of pressure Sarkozy will face over the next five years. France's dangerous illegal immigration problem, its economic woes, and its excessively-well-girded workers' unions will be part of the more than a little inertia he must overcome. This is no benign "change of party direction."

Segolene Royal, his Socialist rival, already announced in a pre-election last-ditch effort that a Sarkozy win would plunge the nation into violence. We all knew she was right; but to cede to this kind of pressure would be to imitate Spain's about-face after the Madrid train bombings. It would be a cowardly response to blackmail.

Hopefully, France will not be so easily intimidated, and Sarkozy will have a chance to attempt to bring France up out of its present Fantasyland Socialism into the 21st Century.

Now, if only America doesn't cross them going the other way.

Looks Like a Sarkozy-Royal Dual in France

The first numbers are in. The "right wing" UMP (does France have a true and viable small-government, free-market party?) represented by Sarkozy is up to 30%, and the big-government socialists' Royal is around 25%.





[Thanks to viewimages.com for this link to Segolene Royal, and thanks to The Economist for Sarkozy.]

Bayrou is down around 18.3%, and Le Pen is floundering at 11.5%.

More as news filters in.

Once again, a nation's politics are very closely related to economics, in the sense that if the politics are not propitious, good economics cannot prosper.

Excellent Analysis for French Voters

Anyone who is faced with the quandary of choosing the next President of France should profit from taking a gander at a series of analyses offered up by Liberte Cherie, my favorite French political group. These people (and they're all very young) really understand economics, better than most older and supposedly wiser Ph.D.s.


[Thanks to liberte-cherie.com for the photo of their original masthead, Sabine Herold.]

The above photo reminds me of that famous Delacroix painting of Liberty, which I offer you below. And it's not just the pose.


[Thanks to artunframed.com for the image.]

You will find:

1. Here an amalgam of the best proposals from all four major candidates;

2. Here a discussion of why Liberte Cherie does not endorse any one candidate, but rather supports the free-market ideas of each;

3. A detailed analysis of each platform, separating the wheat from the chaff -- and there is a bit of both in each of them:

Here for Sarkozy,
here for Royal,
here for Bayrou, and
here for Le Pen.

I apologize for the non-French-speaking readers who could benefit from and who would love to be able to read these articles. At some point, I may do a consolidated version of it all, because many of the points are relevant to the American elections coming up in 2008.

And for you economists and economics afficionados, economics is merely the blood that runs through the veins of the body politic. Without an unencumbered circuitry, the market flow becomes thick, and risks arise: Clots, heart attacks, strokes and other debilitating or fatal diseases. That is why I spend some time on a subject that I otherwise would eschew out of distaste.

The Economist Mag and I Agree About Nicholas Sarkozy: He's France's Best of the Bunch for President

The Economist has endorsed him, finally, but only after much internal debate according to this article at The Figaro (French newspaper) and to this interview with Sophie Pedder, Director of The Economist's French office.

As she carefully points out, TE's editors find that he has the economic program most capable of raising France's living standards, but they hesitated for two reasons:

1. The candidate has a protectionist past;

2. He is making an embarrassingly obvious play for the followers of Le Pen, the extreme right candidate who is presently fourth in line according to the polls (position probably due to his reputed dislike of France's evolving immigrant population, and to rising social unrest.)

I agree that Sarkozy is the only candidate who might do a better job than the others of clearing out a few of the cumbersome socialist cobwebs that have been fettering France's economy for the last 35 years; but as The Economist says, "in the absence of a better choice," he is only "the best of the lot." Hardly high praise.


[Thanks to kitten.cardio.ru for the image. Who is the tallest dwarf?]

I've also heard Sarkozy make Global Warming noises -- probably just another attempt to seduce the Greenies. He is indeed somewhat windmill in style; but on top of that, his efforts as Minister of the Interior, in charge of national security and police forces, have been populist in direction but heavy-handed in style (almost frighteningly fascist in style, in fact) -- not the best way to make friends and influence people.

For example, there were two incidents recently, probably timed with precision before the elections to show his political courage, where the police forces came out in an excessive show of might. One involved an illegal immigrant who refused to show his metro ticket. The bullet-proof vests arrived rapidly, creating havoc on the scene and turning many of the onlookers against the "forces de l'ordre" and for the harried illegal.

The second involved another foreigner (a Chinese, I believe) who came to a school to pick up his child. Somehow, another disproportionate scuffle occurred between this man and an excessively enthusiastic swarm of armed forces, bringing out the enmity of the crowd, not against the perpetrator of the unknown crime, but against Sarkozy's own overzealous army.

His poll numbers keep improving in spite of the fact that Le Canard Enchaine (a newspaper noted for its accurate sleuthing of political scandal) recently reported his involvement in a plan calculated to permit present-President Chirac to avoid legal proceedings once he leaves office. (Legal authorities suspect his involvement in illegal activity that took place many years ago, and he has been protected by presidential immunity all these years.) The charge is that Sarkozy or his people schemed to slip this clause imperceptibly into another legislative bill, for the express purpose of obtaining Chirac's endorsement, which in fact Sarkozy did finally and grudgingly receive only a few days ago. Of course, Sarkozy denies the report.

In the meantime, I've heard that a number of France's more industrious and/or wealthy citizens have already begun to prepare their departure from the country should the elections veer to the left. Companies are setting up temporary offices in Switzerland and elsewhere, and private parties have planned their exodus with finances in tow, just in case.

In other words, the smarter rats are preparing to abandon ship if she leans too far portside.

Here's a Nice Summary of the French Elections

For those who want to bring themselves up to date for the French presidential elections that will take place at the end of the month, here at Angus Reid Global Monitor is a nice summary.


[Thanks to news.yahoo.com/Reuters for the photo montage.]

The results of these elections will be critical to the French economy and social life. If the left is voted in, you can be sure more capital will flee the country and certain stocks will take a plunge. (Not all: See this comment at Seeking Alpha about which industries will be hurt and which will be helped.) On the other hand, if the right wins, there will be unrest in the streets.

Keep your eyes and ears open on April 22, when the first round of voting takes place. I'm betting on Sarkozy (right) at the moment; but you never know with French politics. It's pretty sure we'll get two finalists, but who they will be is still uncertain. Maybe Sarkozy and Bayrou (right and center), or Sarkozy and Royal (right and left), and I suppose there's a chance of a Sarkozy/Le Pen situation (right and far right.) And who knows, maybe we'll get a Royal/Bayrou or Royal/Le Pen. From there on in, it's anyone's guess.